China’s Dam Could Ignite a War with India & Bangladesh

China’s Dam Could Ignite a War with India & Bangladesh: A Ticking Geopolitical Time Bomb

Water is often referred to as the most precious resource on the planet, and in some parts of the world, it is also a powerful geopolitical tool. Nowhere is this more evident than in South Asia, where water rights and control over major rivers have become a critical point of contention. A new flashpoint has emerged as China moves forward with plans to build a megadam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which flows from Tibet into India and Bangladesh, where it is known as the Brahmaputra River. This dam, if completed, could severely disrupt the flow of water to millions of people in India and Bangladesh, leading to environmental, agricultural, and economic consequences—potentially sparking conflict between the three nations.

The Yarlung Tsangpo River holds enormous strategic importance for all three countries, and any attempt to control or divert its waters by one nation could ignite tensions that may escalate into a geopolitical crisis. This issue is not only about water management but also about national security, energy development, and the delicate balance of power in a region already fraught with historical disputes and border tensions.

The Brahmaputra: A Lifeline for Millions

The Brahmaputra River is one of the major rivers in Asia, flowing through Tibet, India, and Bangladesh before emptying into the Bay of Bengal. It is a lifeline for millions of people across these countries, providing water for drinking, agriculture, and industry. The river supports vast agricultural economies, particularly in India’s northeastern states of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, as well as in Bangladesh, where the fertile delta created by the Brahmaputra and Ganges rivers supports millions of farmers.

For India and Bangladesh, the Brahmaputra is crucial for food security and economic stability. Any reduction in water flow due to damming upstream could have catastrophic consequences for these countries, leading to droughts, crop failures, and displacement of people. Bangladesh, in particular, is highly vulnerable, as it is a low-lying country with a dense population that is heavily dependent on the river’s water flow.

China’s Megadam Plans

China’s plans for constructing a megadam on the Yarlung Tsangpo have been in the works for years, but they have gained momentum in recent times as part of China’s broader strategy to harness its river systems for hydropower. The proposed dam would be located near the “Great Bend” of the Yarlung Tsangpo, where the river takes a sharp turn from Tibet into India. This is one of the deepest and most powerful sections of the river, making it an ideal location for hydropower development.

China’s ambition to build the world’s largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo is part of its effort to generate clean energy and reduce its dependence on coal. This dam is expected to generate up to 60 gigawatts of electricity, more than three times the capacity of the famous Three Gorges Dam—currently the largest hydropower project in the world. However, while the project could boost China’s energy capacity, it poses significant downstream risks.

The Potential Impact on India and Bangladesh

India and Bangladesh are alarmed by China’s plans for several reasons. First, there is a fear that the dam could lead to reduced water flow, particularly during the dry season, when India and Bangladesh rely heavily on the Brahmaputra’s water for agriculture. Any decrease in water availability would directly impact farming communities, food production, and access to drinking water.

Additionally, China’s control over the flow of the river could give it leverage in times of conflict or tension. India is already wary of China’s growing influence in South Asia, especially in the context of ongoing border disputes in the Himalayan region. By building a dam on a river that is vital to India’s northeastern states, China could potentially weaponize water, using it as a geopolitical tool to pressure India.

For Bangladesh, the risks are even more severe. As the lowest-lying country in the river’s path, Bangladesh is highly dependent on a steady and predictable flow of water to maintain its agricultural output and prevent flooding. A change in the river’s flow due to the dam could exacerbate flooding during the monsoon season or lead to droughts during the dry season, both of which would have devastating consequences for the country’s economy and population.

Geopolitical Tensions Between China and India

The relationship between China and India has long been tense, with territorial disputes in the Himalayas contributing to a legacy of mistrust and occasional skirmishes. In 1962, the two countries fought a brief but bloody war over the Aksai Chin region, and border tensions have flared up repeatedly since then. Most recently, in 2020, clashes in the Galwan Valley led to casualties on both sides, further deteriorating relations between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

China’s dam-building activities on the Yarlung Tsangpo are likely to heighten these tensions. India sees the Brahmaputra as a critical resource for its northeastern states, and any attempt by China to control or divert the river’s flow could be seen as a direct threat to Indian sovereignty and security. India has already voiced concerns about China’s lack of transparency regarding its dam projects and the potential environmental impacts on downstream regions.

There is also the fear that China could use its control over the river to strategically release or withhold water in times of crisis. During the monsoon season, for instance, the sudden release of water from a dam upstream could cause massive flooding in India and Bangladesh, while withholding water during the dry season could cause severe droughts. This kind of “water warfare” is a worst-case scenario, but it remains a concern for both India and Bangladesh.

The Risk of Conflict

While outright war over water remains unlikely, the construction of the dam could trigger a series of diplomatic confrontations between China, India, and Bangladesh. India and China are already locked in a broader strategic rivalry, with both countries expanding their military presence along their shared border and competing for influence in South Asia and beyond. The dam could become another point of contention in this rivalry, further destabilizing an already fragile relationship.

India and Bangladesh have both sought to engage China diplomatically to address their concerns, but China has so far been reluctant to provide detailed information about its plans. This lack of transparency has only fueled suspicions, and some analysts fear that the situation could escalate if China proceeds with the project without consulting its downstream neighbors.

Additionally, India and Bangladesh may seek to counter China’s dam-building activities by constructing their own water infrastructure projects, which could further strain relations in the region. This could lead to a dangerous cycle of competitive dam-building and water diversion, exacerbating tensions and increasing the likelihood of conflict.

Environmental Concerns and Long-Term Consequences

Beyond the geopolitical risks, the construction of a megadam on the Yarlung Tsangpo raises significant environmental concerns. Large dams can have devastating impacts on ecosystems, particularly in fragile regions like the Himalayas. The dam could alter the natural flow of the river, disrupt fish populations, and harm biodiversity in the region. It could also have long-term consequences for the livelihoods of millions of people who depend on the river for fishing, farming, and other activities.

Moreover, the Himalayan region is seismically active, and the construction of a massive dam in such a region could increase the risk of earthquakes and landslides, potentially causing catastrophic damage both upstream and downstream.

Conclusion: A Ticking Time Bomb

China’s plans to build a megadam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River pose a significant threat to regional stability in South Asia. For India and Bangladesh, the potential loss of water resources is a matter of national security, and any attempt by China to control the flow of the Brahmaputra could trigger diplomatic or even military responses. The situation is further complicated by the existing geopolitical tensions between China and India, as well as the environmental risks posed by such a large-scale project.

As China moves forward with its dam-building plans, the world will be watching closely. Any misstep could ignite a conflict in a region that is already fraught with historical rivalries and disputes. The future of the Brahmaputra River—and the millions of people who depend on it—hangs in the balance.