Taliban starts work on TAPI Natural Gas Pipeline: Will it reach India?

The TAPI natural gas pipeline project, which stands for Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India, has been a significant and ambitious infrastructure initiative aimed at enhancing energy cooperation in South Asia. The pipeline, which would transport natural gas from the Galkynysh Gas Field in Turkmenistan through Afghanistan, Pakistan, and into India, has faced numerous hurdles since its conception in the 1990s. However, with the Taliban now claiming to have resumed work on the Afghan section of the pipeline, the question arises: Will TAPI finally reach India?

This discussion on Vantage with Palki Sharma explores the geopolitical, security, and economic implications of the project under Taliban control, the potential benefits for the region, and the challenges that still stand in the way.

What is the TAPI Pipeline?

The TAPI pipeline is an approximately 1,814 km project that is designed to carry 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from Turkmenistan’s rich gas fields to its downstream partners. The proposed route passes through the following countries:

• Turkmenistan: The gas would originate from the Galkynysh gas field, the second-largest natural gas field in the world.
• Afghanistan: The pipeline would pass through key provinces, including Herat and Kandahar.
• Pakistan: From Afghanistan, the pipeline would enter Pakistan’s major industrial regions, especially Quetta and Multan.
• India: The final destination is expected to be Fazilka, a town in the Indian state of Punjab near the Pakistan border.

Why is the TAPI Pipeline Important?

For Turkmenistan, the TAPI project is a way to diversify its gas exports, which are currently dependent on China. For India and Pakistan, the pipeline offers access to much-needed natural gas, a cleaner and more cost-effective alternative to oil and coal. The project is also envisioned to foster economic cooperation in the region and reduce energy deficits, particularly in India and Pakistan, where demand for natural gas is skyrocketing.

In addition to the economic benefits, TAPI is seen as a “peace pipeline”—a project that could promote stability and cooperation among its participating countries, particularly between India and Pakistan, who have historically tense relations.

The Taliban’s Role in TAPI

Since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan in August 2021, the future of the TAPI pipeline has been in limbo. The Taliban leadership has consistently expressed support for the pipeline, viewing it as a source of revenue and development for Afghanistan. They have reiterated their commitment to providing security for the project and have resumed work on the Afghan section of the pipeline. This marks a significant shift from the Taliban’s earlier stance during their first reign in the late 1990s when they were less cooperative with international infrastructure projects.

The Taliban claims that the pipeline will create jobs and bring much-needed energy supplies to Afghanistan, which has suffered from energy shortages for decades. The Taliban’s willingness to cooperate with regional countries on this project is also seen as an attempt to gain international legitimacy and economic stability.

Challenges Facing the TAPI Pipeline

While the Taliban’s support is crucial for the Afghan section of the pipeline, several challenges remain, making it uncertain whether the pipeline will reach India:

1. Security Concerns: Afghanistan has long been a volatile region, with ongoing threats from insurgent groups, including ISIS-K. Although the Taliban claims they can secure the pipeline route, the possibility of sabotage or attacks cannot be ruled out. The region has experienced decades of instability, and the security environment remains unpredictable.
2. Political Tensions Between India and Pakistan: One of the major roadblocks to the completion of TAPI is the strained relationship between India and Pakistan. Any pipeline that runs through Pakistan faces the risk of being caught in the crossfire of political tensions between the two nations. Moreover, India has been cautious about its dealings with Pakistan in energy-related infrastructure projects due to fears of reliance on a politically unstable neighbor.
3. Financing and Investment: The TAPI project, estimated to cost around $10 billion, requires significant international investment. While the Asian Development Bank has supported the project, political instability in Afghanistan and the complex geopolitics of the region have deterred many investors. Turkmenistan, which is leading the project, is also economically constrained and heavily reliant on external financing to complete the pipeline.
4. Sanctions on the Taliban: Afghanistan’s new government under the Taliban is still not internationally recognized, and the country faces international sanctions. These sanctions complicate any international projects involving Afghanistan, making it difficult for the Taliban to secure necessary funding or partnerships with major global corporations.
5. Geopolitical Competition: The TAPI pipeline has also become a chess piece in the broader competition between major powers. Russia has interests in preventing the project from materializing, as it views Central Asia as its sphere of influence and prefers to maintain control over the region’s gas exports. Similarly, China, which imports large quantities of Turkmen gas, may not be keen on a project that would diversify Turkmenistan’s gas markets.

Will the Pipeline Reach India?

India has been cautious about its participation in TAPI for several reasons, including its concerns about security in Afghanistan and Pakistan. While India has not withdrawn from the project, it has explored alternatives, including deepening its energy ties with countries like Qatar, Iran, and Russia. Additionally, India’s involvement in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and its emphasis on renewable energy sources suggest that it is diversifying its energy strategy.

Given the current geopolitical landscape, it is unclear if the TAPI pipeline will ultimately reach India. The involvement of Pakistan as a key transit country and ongoing regional tensions make India’s participation in the project a diplomatic balancing act. India might continue its support on paper, but its actual involvement in the long term remains uncertain unless there is a significant improvement in Indo-Pakistani relations.

Conclusion: The Future of TAPI

The TAPI pipeline is a symbol of both hope and uncertainty for South Asia. If completed, it could significantly alleviate energy shortages in India and Pakistan and provide Afghanistan with a much-needed source of revenue. However, the project’s future is fraught with challenges, from security concerns to political tensions between participating countries.

The Taliban’s active role in the project may accelerate progress on the Afghan section, but this is only one piece of the puzzle. Until India and Pakistan find a way to cooperate on the pipeline, and the security situation in Afghanistan stabilizes, the dream of a fully operational TAPI pipeline remains elusive.